Regime shifts increasing

The  gulf below New Orleans and the Baltic are both perhaps experiencing regime shifts. Hypoxia driven by agriculture creating oxygen impoverished dead zones. accelerating bad news.


June 26, 2008 at 3:19 am Leave a comment

world fair trade day

world fair trade day

Originally uploaded by tintin5021

Spreading the word from Austin to Cambridge…
work to be done, obviously. Fair Trade Towns, based near Asheville, NC is an interesting new entrant. World fair trade day back in may on flickr. first bunch is a lot of church basements, a few small shops.12k people 150 towns. lots of room to grow demand. the photostream is worth a look for the feel of the existing true believer market, i think.

June 24, 2008 at 2:42 am Leave a comment



Originally uploaded by tintin5021

“The Washington D.C. Neighborhood Guide breaks down D.C. into neighborhood groupings with names like C-SPANistan (Capitol Hill-area), Banana Republic Republic (Georgetown named after all its yuppie stores), Sacramento (the Catholic area of Brookland, get it… Sacrament-o), and many others. link

Each neighborhood section gives census information, cultural background, a little history, and a good description of the activities to do there. The paper does not hold back any punches when it discusses the problem neighborhoods of Washington but it also shows the good each one has to offer, thus avoiding the stereotypes that blind many. Even the “good” neighborhoods recieve their just fill of faults. Where else could one read about the African-American Black versus African Black battle going on at Liquorridor or why Catholicgauze wants to live so badly at C-SPANistan.

I cannot possibly describe how great this is for anyone who wishes to know about all of Washington. In the print edition business ads for the neighborhood are grouped with the article adding an extra umph of geographical evidence. For the heavily blue blood, liberal Episcopal part of town there is an advertisement for a church whose masses are “pet friendly.”

June 22, 2008 at 5:15 am Leave a comment

China as an island

China as an island

Originally uploaded by tintin5021

A look at China
Its size and its penchant for (self sufficiency) dictate China’s three main geopolitical objectives:

* maintain unity of the Han heartland;
* maintain control over the non-Han buffer zone;
* deflect foreign encroachment on the Chinese coast
Clearly isolationist, these objectives also condemn China to poverty: as a densely populated country with limited arable land, China needs internatioal trade to prosper. The paradox is that prosperity will lead to instability. Prosperity will tend to be concentrated in the areas trading with the outside world (i.e. the coastal regions), creating economic tensions with the poorer interior. This might destabilise the Han heartland.

June 22, 2008 at 5:05 am Leave a comment

Tragic historian vs. futurist

“Questions from the audience ended with one asking whether optimism or pessimism was a more useful way to think about the future. Schwartz said, “Optimism lets you imagine how you can overcome problems, and those possibilities motivate change.” Ferguson said, “You must always focus on worst-case scenarios, and history will teach them to you.” From a LongNow report by Stewart Brand. For some reason it’s password protected just for members. So I’m putting it here below:

In what turned out to be a riveting evening, historian Niall Ferguson and futurist Peter Schwartz fire-hosed each other with enough ideas, frames of reference, ripostes, and eloquences to lead to a clear conceptual divergence. At the same time, the two were discovering, live in front of an audience, new ways they might work together on future projects.

Ferguson began by pointing out that while we face many futures, there is only one past, and its residents outnumber us— only 6 percent of all humans are now alive. Historians, he said, “commune with the dead. We re-enact their thoughts, in their context and ours.”

Historians look for rough regularities, such as he found in his analysis of the wars and hatred played out in the 20th Century. In his book, WAR OF THE WORLD, he describes how the combination of economic volatility, ethnic conflict, and failing empire always led to spirals of lethal violence. The advance of science and technology has not eliminated the possibility of violence but may have made it more powerful than ever. The three causes are still in play. “Our job is to keep them from coinciding again.”

Ferguson ended with a critique of Schwartz’s book on scenario planning, THE ART OF THE LONG VIEW, which he thought showed signs of “heuristic bias.” When Schwartz asked Ferguson to expand on that idea, Ferguson pointed out there was a whole chapter in the book about “The Global Teenager,” which seemed spurious. It merely reflected Schwartz’s personal experience: “You were a teenager when teenagers mattered. ”

Historians also have heuristic biases, Ferguson added, such as their expectation that “great events should have great causes.” Historians have much to learn from complexity theory and evolution, he said. His own work with “counter-factual history” helps expose critical moments in history and provides a way to “think about what didn’t happen.” The counter-factual technique is an application of scenario thinking to the past.

In Schwartz’s opening remarks, he said that his plans to write a book titled THE CASE FOR OPTIMISM were derailed by reading Ferguson’s WAR OF THE WORLD. He’s been grappling with the issues Ferguson raised for 18 months. “You do alternative pasts, I do alternative futures. Where historians commune with the dead, futurists have imaginary friends.”

Schwartz characterized Ferguson’s view of history as basically down, with an upside possibility, whereas his own view was of history as basically up, with always the possibility of getting things wrong. For Schwartz, the second half of the 20th Century showed an upside momentum, with a fraction of the violent deaths—5% of humans killed violently in the first half, 0.2 % in the second half. The Cold War ended quietly. Women were liberated. China took off. Prosperity accelerated. Everything from Wikipedia to cellphones empowered the grassroots.

In response, Ferguson noted Schwartz’s “faith in technology” and proposed it reflected his training as an engineer. “Aren’t you like the pre-1914 people who said that war was impossible because of all the new technology and commerce?” Schwartz agreed that the parallel is worrying.

Ferguson said, “I think our difference is that I’m a pessimist and you’re an optimist. You’re Pangloss and I’m Cassandra.” Schwartz noted that since his parents were in slave-labor camps in World War II, and he was born in a displaced-person camp after the war, “It would be churlish not to be an optimist.” Ferguson said, “That would make me skeptical about technology. The world leader in science and technology in 1940 was Nazi Germany.”

Questions from the audience ended with one asking whether optimism or pessimism was a more useful way to think about the future. Schwartz said, “Optimism lets you imagine how you can overcome problems, and those possibilities motivate change.” Ferguson said, “You must always focus on worst-case scenarios, and history will teach them to you.”


June 22, 2008 at 12:15 am Leave a comment

Cows with radios

It’s got a good beat, you can chew your cud to it. From Roland. When the fence is on your head and the constraint is wireless, there is no need for barbed wire. Roundemup and movem out via the farm’s DJ.

Originally uploaded by tintin5021

Cows with radios

Originally uploaded by tintin5021

June 15, 2008 at 4:45 pm Leave a comment

father of resillience science wins award

Buzz Holling wins award

Originally uploaded by tintin5021

from the Vollvo award: “Crawford “Buzz” Holling is one of the most creative and influential ecologists of our times. His integrative thinking has shed new light on the growth, collapse, and regeneration of coupled human-ecological systems. Current discussions and debates over non-linear systems, adaptation and change, thresholds, tipping points, and resilience are all part of his rich legacy of writing. His analyses have ranged boldly across scales of time and space.” link and link.

What resillience is.

June 15, 2008 at 3:52 am Leave a comment

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